Doug Saffir

The Patriots have lost four games this year by a total of 11 points.

There shouldn’t be a single person out there saying the road to the AFC Championship is easy for the Houston Texans.

But there should be plenty of people saying that it’s very possible.

The first match up between these two teams came five weeks ago, and the Patriots dominated thanks to fruitless early drives from the Texans and solid protection for quarterback Tom Brady.

Three things can keep the result of the earlier game from repeating – and it’s no secret to the Texans.

1) Knock Down Tom Brady

One sack in their first match up did not get the job done. In Sunday’s game, JJ Watt and the Texans’ defensive line need to take the focus off knocking down passes and shift it to knocking down the quarterback.

Brady hasn’t won a playoff game in which he was sacked three or more times since 2005 (against the Jaguars). Brady was 28 then. He’s 35 now. Most old men don’t like getting socked in the mouth – Brady is one of them.

2) Keep The Patriots’ Offense On The Sidelines

You lose to New England when Brady is on the field. While the defense has improved this year, there’s no question about who the playmaker on the team is. If you keep Brady, Wes Welker, and Rob Gronkowski on the sideline, you significantly improve your chances.

Brady has lost only six playoff games in his career, and all but one share this common feature: Brady was on the field for less than 30 minutes.

The one exception is New England’s playoff loss to the Jets in February 2011.

3) Score Early And Often

The Patriots rely on offensive points to win. And often times, their offense does enough to get them those wins.

Unless, their opponent can stake an early lead.

In the Brady’s six playoff losses, New England was outscored in the first quarter four times. The two times they weren’t, the Patriots led by 3 and 4 points – leads that are barely respectable.

But the times they were down after the first 15 minutes, their opponents led by 7, 3, 24, and 11 points. The 3-point lead (the first Super Bowl against the Giants – notable for it’s competitive play and heart-stopping finish) is the exception here.

Brady’s Patriots have never won a playoff game in which they trailed by 7 or more after the first quarter.

Honestly, #3 doesn’t seem like much more than saying, “Score more points than New England and you’ll win.” But with New England, an early deficit often means forced plays, a Brady-centric strategy, and a self-fulfilling prophecy of defeat.

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The Texans can do all of this. They were a top-5 team for sacks in the NFL, led by Watt’s NFL-leading 20.5. Arian Foster is arguably the best running back in football, and is more than capable of helping Houston kill the clock. And the combination of Foster, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, and Matt Schaub is more than capable of landing a few key first quarter blows.

Do the Patriots deserve to be favored going into Sunday’s game? Sure. But are the Texans more dangerous than most New England fans are treating them? Absolutely.

The formula is there and the Texans have the pieces to match. An early end to New England football is in the making.

(Photo Courtesy: Gambling911.com)